Are hopes of US-China trade talks overblown?
Some of the most optimistic language just rehashes China's fiercest denial
Several reports and commentators have interpreted a post from a Chinese state media platform associated with CCTV, Yuyuan Tantian, as signaling openness in Beijing to negotiating with the Trump administration over tariffs. When I read the post, I came away quite a bit less optimistic.
I could be wrong, so to quickly present some of the cases people have made:
- , a former Xinhua staffer who then went on to the Beijing think tank Center for China and Globalization and is now a Princeton graduate student, writes in his newsletter that “CHINA APPEARS READY FOR TRADE TALKS WITH U.S.”
He cites the Yuyuan Tantian post on Weibo, the contents of which I’ll discuss below. He also cites the “Chairman Rabbit” social media account, which is less/not authoritative but more directly supportive of talks. A trio of good reporters from the FT report the Yuyuan Tantian post as a “gesture” and lead with “Chinese state media has said there would be ‘no harm’ in holding trade talks with the Trump administration, indicating a softening of Beijing’s position as both sides look for a way out of their crushing tariff war.” They quote Wang, as well as Trivium China’s Andrew Polk, who I take quite seriously as an analyst.
“By painting the US as the more eager, more anxious, more pressured party they are trying to portray themselves as coming from a place of strength,” Polk tells FT. “This should play well with the domestic audience and give them cover to start negotiations.”
The quotes both of these (among others) picked out from Yuyuan Tantian do seem to support the idea that there’s a Chinese government olive branch here. Here’s the original and FT’s translations:
“但是美国如果希望同中国接触，现阶段对中国来说也没有坏处”
“But if the US wishes to engage with China, there’s no harm in it for China at this stage”“谈，大门敞开，打，奉陪到底。”
“If it is talks, the door is wide open. If it is a fight, we’ll see it through to the end.”
Context gets in the way, for me
So why do I feel a bit hesitant? When I opened the underlying piece from Yuyuan Tantian, I found a relatively haughty piece that spends most of its time talking about how screwed the Americans are after Trump’s gambit, how the markets have been displeased, and how the administration has had trouble reaching deals even with more friendly governments.
The attitude is, as Polk suggests, one where the Trump people keep pathetically reaching out to talk, but honestly there’s not much to talk about unless they can get their head straight and clean up the mess they’ve unilaterally made.
In that context, it feels a bit much to say China’s government “appears ready for trade talks” based on one post by a popular audience-focused voice at the margins of authoritative state media and another by a prominent individual whose voice only carries any weight as an indication of government views because, in being allowed to be a prominent commentator on sensitive issues, they logically must have some coordination with propaganda/censorship authorities.
I got even more skeptical when I went to compare this language with the government’s prior position. Assuming today’s messages are a government signal, the relevant contrast is with official government denials that talks were under way, even as Trump insisted they were. On March 24, we have this excerpt from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing (my translation):
凤凰卫视记者：近来美方不断有消息称，中美之间正在谈判，甚至将达成协议。你能否证实双方有没有开始谈判？
Phoenix TV journalist: The US side recently keeps saying China and the US are in negotiations, and even that they will reach an agreement. Can you confirm whether the two sides have started negotiations?
郭嘉昆：这些都是假消息。据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。
Guo Jiakun [MFA Spokesperson]: This is all fake news. According to my understanding, China and the US have not engaged in consultations or negotiations on the tariff issue, let alone have they reached an agreement
这场关税战是美方发起的，中方的态度是一贯的也是明确的：***打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。*** 对话谈判必须是平等、尊重、互惠的。
This tariff war was started by the US side, and the Chinese side’s position is consistent and clear: ***If it’s a fight, we’ll see it through to the end. If it’s talks, the door is wide open.*** Dialogue and negotiations must be equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial.
Does the quote I bolded above look familiar? That’s because it’s the very same language people are interpreting as an olive branch—except it originally appeared in China’s most vociferous denial of US suggestions that talks were under way. (I reused FT’s translation to emphasize that it’s the same.)
That wasn’t the last time MFA denied US statements that contacts were ongoing. On March 28, after Trump told Time Xi had called him, the spokesperson said, “According to my understanding, the two leaders have not spoken recently.”
What’s going on here?
My hunch has been that there are indeed talks between US and Chinese government officials, but from the Chinese perspective these are working-level conversations about the logistics and conditions of potential future negotiations. The MFA language does not deny that there’s any contact between the US and Chinese governments. “Negotiations” or 谈判 are likely regarded as an official meeting on a particular matter, rather than some diplomat’s contact with some staffer on the conditions for such a meeting.
It would be utterly consistent with the Trump administration’s general dishonesty to either fabricate talks completely or embellish working level logistics calls where the Chinese side says “no talks until you get your head right” into “talks.” But that kind of public embellishment would predictably piss off Chinese diplomats, who would resort to language like “fake news” and strong denials to counter it.
Nothing about the social media posts reported today substantially changes my hunch here, though—as always—I could be wrong. That said, my basic interpretation is that the governments very likely have been talking about how to talk for weeks—just that one of them doesn’t want to talk about it.
About Here It Comes
Here it Comes is written by me, Graham Webster, a research scholar and editor-in-chief of the DigiChina Project at the Stanford Program on Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance. It is the successor to my earlier newsletter efforts U.S.–China Week and Transpacifica. Here It Comes is an exploration of the onslaught of interactions between US-China relations, technology, and climate change. The opinions expressed here are my own, and I reserve the right to change my mind.